Sunday, August 09, 2009

Kim Jong Il will be replaced soon

Somebody flogging his own book suggested in the Washington Post a few weeks ago that Mr. Obama invite Kim Jong Il of North Korea to the US for a week or two. Cute, but not effective. Yes, it somewhat thawed relations when Eisenhower (on Nixon's suggestion) invited Mr. Khrushchev in 1959, but he was merely crude, not post-stroke. Besides, the warmth lasted about two weeks with Khrushchev, and then he reverted to the hooligan he was.

Mr. Kim is not thinking straight, perhaps due to lesions in his frontal cortex that manages, e.g., risk/benefit analysis.

China and Russia lead an effort that imposed even greater economic sanctions on North Korea. By themselves, Sanctions will not have much effect, being as North Korea is already an economic mess. Not the point. Two communist countries were saying to a 'comrade' that they are not happy with all the nuke rattling, being as each has a presence near North Korea, China lying just across a river.

The message was not for Kim but for the advisors around him (every dictator has a group of advisors). The message was 'chill this guy' and put someone else in charge before you blow it. Soon Kim will have a medical problem like Mr. Arafat's a few years a go (when he was lethally poisoned). He will need to get medical attention and some other people will take over, and tamp things down to a dull roar. Count on it, especially if you are Kim Jong Il or his 20-x son.

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